A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
